Those who can maintain this balance—embracing uncertainty without being brought to a state of ... More
Ask 10,000 business leaders around the world how they are feeling right now and "apprehensive," "cautious," and "uncertain" seem pretty good words to sum up the general mood. That's precisely what Dun & Bradstreet found in its latest quarterly 2025 Global Business Optimism Insights report, which concludes: "Persistent global economic uncertainty and rising trade protectionism continue to dampen global business sentiment." Every generation of leaders will live through the sunshine and downpours of economic cycles and geopolitical events over which they have no control. But this generation of leaders—my generation—is living in extraordinary times. We’ve had a once-in-a-century global financial crisis, the "Great Recession" that started in late 2007, a once-in-century global pandemic from 2020, and that's to say nothing of the relentless pace of change and disruption of digital technologies and emerging artificial intelligence. For us, uncertainty is, well, normal. In these times, the distinction between good leadership and great leadership—resilient individuals and organizations—is the ability to exist in that state of uncertainty without being rushed into ill-judged actions or retreating into creating stultifying processes. It's the leadership quality called negative capability.
Negative Capability as Competitive Advantage
In a world of increasing uncertainty, negative capability manifests as the ability to:
- Resist premature closure when confronting complex problems;
- Hold multiple, often contradictory perspectives simultaneously;
- Distinguish between productive discomfort and unproductive distress;
- Leverage ambiguity as a catalyst for deeper understanding.
Those who can maintain this balance—embracing uncertainty without being brought to a state of paralysis by it—demonstrate greater innovation potential and adaptability during periods of significant change.
The Paradox of Control in Complexity
When facing uncertainty or growing complexity, many leaders grasp instinctively for greater control through standardization and structure. I’ve seen this pattern emerge repeatedly. But a bias toward trying to reduce uncertainty frequently leads to premature conclusions, overlooked strategic opportunities, and rigid frameworks ill-equipped for adaptability.
As developmental psychologist Robert Kegan shows in his research on adult development and organizational complexity, leaders sometimes conflate decisiveness with speed. Yet the most effective decision-makers in complex environments are not those who act most quickly. The best decision-makers and leaders are those who can hold competing perspectives simultaneously without premature resolution. It's an echo of the quality of negative capability.
The Path Forward: Developing Negative Capability in Practice
What if we could transform our relationship with uncertainty? Here are four key practices to help develop the capacity for negative capability:
1. Distinguish the Signal from Noise
Not all uncertainty carries equal weight. Leaders with strong negative capability excel at separating trivial ambiguities from substantive unknowns that are too important to ignore.
What’s required is the discipline to ask: "Is this uncertainty central to our strategy or a peripheral distraction?" It's a distinction that allows leaders to focus energy on core uncertainties while acknowledging less material issues that could become time-sucking distractions. This is about selective and purposeful engagement with complexity.
2. Create Reflective Space
Organizational pressure to deal straight away with complex challenges can often produce reactive rather than thoughtful answers. One solution is to create protected time to give yourself space for deeper consideration of issues and options. Allocate "thinking time"—structured periods where the goal isn't immediate resolution but depth of understanding. Taking thinking time in uncertain and complex times isn't an indulgence or procrastination. It's strategic patience that ultimately leads to more effective responses.
3. Narrate Uncertainty Effectively
How we talk about uncertainty can significantly influence the response at all levels of the organization. The language of negative capability is intended to acknowledge ambiguity without creating organizational panic or paralysis.
The practice involves moving beyond binary communication ("We either know or we don't") toward more nuanced framing that better reflects reality. Effective leaders use language like: "Here's what we know with high confidence, what we know with medium confidence, and what remains unclear." This creates psychological safety to accept the unknown while maintaining momentum where there is clarity.
4. Embrace Productive Tension
Negative capability requires the ability to hold seemingly opposing states simultaneously: the ability to project confidence without certainty, direction without premature closure, and conviction without inflexibility.
The practice involves explicitly naming tensions rather than attempting to resolve them artificially. Try beginning discussions with: "Here are the polarities we're managing..." followed by an exploration of interdependent opposites. This approach acknowledges complexity while maintaining forward movement.
In my work with leadership teams, I've found that organizations that can establish "structured ambiguity"—clear goals paired with flexible approaches and regular reassessment of assumptions—demonstrate greater resilience during periods of change or doubt.
Beyond Executive Leadership: Developing Negative Capability at All Levels
While much discussion of uncertainty management focuses on C-suite executives, organizations benefit most when negative capability permeates all leadership levels. In fact, mid-level managers often face the greatest uncertainty challenges—translating strategic ambiguity into tactical clarity while supporting frontline teams through change.
What distinguishes effective mid-level leadership in uncertain times is not filtering uncertainty by oversimplifying it but rather helping teams develop the capacity to navigate complexity themselves. This becomes particularly important during organizational changes, when managers who can acknowledge ambiguity while maintaining direction tend to see better outcomes than those who project artificial certainty.
This aligns with what psychoanalyst Wilfred Bion, who extended Keats' concept into organizational settings, observed: "The capacity for sitting with uncertainty without prematurely grasping for resolution may be the most important attribute of leadership in complex times."
The Competitive Edge of Negative Capability
In a business environment where change is accelerating rather than stabilizing, negative capability represents a distinct competitive advantage. From my work with organizations navigating significant change, I've observed that those where leaders at all levels effectively navigate uncertainty demonstrate several distinctive characteristics:
- Innovation Resilience: They maintain robust innovation pipelines even during market disruption, viewing uncertainty as a catalyst for creativity rather than a reason for retrenchment.
- Strategic Adaptability: They demonstrate greater nimbleness during market shifts, making incremental adjustments rather than dramatic overcorrections.
- Engagement Durability: They maintain higher employee engagement during periods of change, as teams feel equipped rather than overwhelmed by uncertainty.
- Collaborative Problem-Solving: They exhibit more effective cross-functional collaboration, as diverse perspectives are valued rather than suppressed in the face of complexity.
Transforming Uncertainty from Threat to Opportunity
By implementing the four practices outlined above, leaders can transform their relationship with uncertainty—shifting from anxiety and premature closure to curiosity and strategic patience.
The capacity to hold space for uncertainty without being overwhelmed by it—to resist the urge to prematurely resolve ambiguity—may be the most critical leadership skill for our complex, rapidly evolving world. It allows organizations to learn from uncertainty rather than merely survive it.
In today's environment, perhaps the most important question isn't "How quickly can we eliminate uncertainty?" but rather "How effectively can we navigate through it while remaining open to emergent possibilities?" The answer may determine which organizations merely survive and which truly thrive in today's unsettled times.